54.Swedish PM wins historic second term

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Swedish PM wins historic second term

By Andrew Ward in Stockholm

Published: September 19 2010 12:29 | Last updated: September 19 2010 23:06

Fredrik Reinfeldt, Sweden’s centre-right prime minister, has won a historic second term after a general election that highlighted the changing political landscape of a country traditionally dominated by the centre-left Social Democrats.

But his coalition government was narrowly short of an outright majority as the final votes were counted on Sunday night, with the far-right Sweden Democrats party holding the balance of power after winning its first seats in parliament.

With nearly all districts counted, the four-party ruling Alliance had 49.2 per cent of the vote, compared with 43.7 per cent for the opposition Red-Green coalition, ensuring that Mr Reinfeldt will become the first centre-right leader to secure re-election in modern Swedish history.

However, his victory risked being overshadowed by the success of the Sweden Democrats, whose 5.7 per cent support marked the latest in a series of advances by far-right parties in Europe amid mounting debate over immigration.

The results looked set to leave Mr Reinfeldt’s Alliance two seats short of a majority with 173 seats, compared with 156 for the Red-Green coalition and 20 for the Sweden Democrats. Analysts cautioned that a final tally would not be known until overseas votes are counted in the next few days.

With little chance of the far-right siding with the centre-left to oust Mr Reinfeldt, the ruling parties did not need a majority to keep power, provided they won more seats than the Red-Greens, led by Mona Sahlin of the Social Democrats.

But a minority government would leave Mr Reinfeldt needing opposition support – most likely from the Green party – to pass legislation if he is to keep his promise not to co-operate with the far-right.

Torbjorn Isaksson, chief analyst at Nordea, the biggest Swedish bank, said the financial markets were relaxed about the prospect of a minority administration.

“The government and the opposition will find some way to work together,” he said. “The economy is in good shape, there are no tough reforms coming up and the differences between the parties are fairly small. That makes it less crucial to have a strong government.”

Even without a majority, re-election would be a historic achievement for Mr Reinfeldt in a country ruled by Social Democrats for 65 of the past 78 years.

He was helped by a surging economic recovery that has highlighted the government’s steady stewardship through the financial crisis and created fiscal headroom to promise further tax cuts and increased welfare spending over the next four years.

Mr Reinfeldt appears to have convinced voters that his centre-right government can be trusted to preserve Sweden’s cherished cradle-to-grave welfare system in spite of opposition claims that another term of centre-right rule would leave it in ruins.

The Social Democrats narrowly held on to their prized status as Sweden’s biggest party, with 30.8 per cent of the vote, ahead of Mr Reinfeldt’s Moderate party with 30 per cent. But it was the worst electoral performance in the party’s history, highlighting the gradual erosion of centre-left hegemony in a country often considered the spiritual home of European social democracy.

Jenny Madestam, political scientist at Stockholm university, said the government owed its likely re-election in large part to the popularity of Mr Reinfeldt, who polls showed had a huge advantage over Ms Sahlin on questions of leadership and trust.

“Voters have seen that we have had a rightwing government for the past four years and yet Sweden has not changed that much,” said Ms Madestam. “The welfare system has not been ruined.”

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