TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images
A Japanese coast guard boat in Tokyo in March
Summary
China has delayed discussions with Japan over tapping petroleum resources in disputed waters out of pique over the Japanese incarceration of a Chinese fisherman whose vessel collided with two Japanese ships. The incident is part of a longtime dispute between Tokyo and Beijing over the ownership of the nearby Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands. Domestic considerations have prompted Japan and China to whip up nationalist sentiments over the current incident. Even though neither country wants matters to get out of hand, misunderstandings could exacerbate the dispute.
Analysis
China has postponed the next round of discussions with Japan about joint development of natural gas deposits in disputed maritime areas originally scheduled for mid-September. The step followed a decision by Japan’s Ishigaki Summary Court on Sept. 10 to imprison until Sept. 19 the captain of a Chinese fishing trawler that collided with two Japanese coastal guard ships near the disputed Senkaku Islands (known in China as the Diaoyutai Islands) earlier this week. The fisherman allegedly was fishing in Japanese waters and obstructing the Japanese coast guard. China has made several diplomatic representations to Japan’s ambassador this week and spoken publicly against the Japanese handling of the event. The Japanese Embassy in Beijing saw a demonstration over the matter on Sept. 8, and more protests could occur in coming days. Sources in different parts of China have reported throughout the past week that anti-Japanese sentiment — easily stoked in China — is swelling.
Japan could detain the fisherman for another 10 days while deciding whether to prosecute him. If he is released promptly, then tempers might calm down relatively soon. But if he is prosecuted or imprisoned, the incident could become a thorn in relations. The postponement of the next round of East China Sea talks marks the first sign of the damage that could result from the incident if tensions rise too high. Given the cost of a serious rupture, both countries are likely to work to limit how far the latest incident goes.
The incident comes in a year that has seen tensions between the two economic giants on a number of levels:
economic,
political and
military. The naval situation has been tense around the disputed islands, with
Chinese helicopters swooping at Japanese ships and Japan allegedly attempting to base its annual naval exercises with the United States later this year near the same islands on a theme of recapturing an island seized by an enemy. For their part, the Chinese quietly encouraged a rash of labor strikes almost exclusively focused on Japanese manufacturers in China, resulting in wage increases.
Both countries’ internal situations have prompted their respective governments to use the maritime incident to promote nationalism. Japan’s ruling party is struggling given the state of the economy and will hold an internal election to determine the next prime minister of Japan on Sept. 14. Both candidates have called attention to maritime tensions with China, emphasizing “uncertainties” in Japan’s national security environment and the primacy of a strong alliance with the United States. Beijing meanwhile is as usual struggling to maintain stability amid economic problems. Beijing’s concerns about social unrest arising from economic troubles likely explain its tacit approval earlier this year of
labor protests mainly targeting Japanese companies.Just how far matters will go remains unclear. In 1970, about 2,500 foreign students protested over the matter in the United States. Other demonstrations over the Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands dispute occurred in 1996 and 2003, after protest groups sent ships to the islands. In 2003, the Chinese sent a “Protect Diaoyutai” boat to the islands with a National People’s Congress representative on board. Ten Japanese warships intercepted the boat, which suffered damage in the process.
In an example of a major
anti-Japanese demonstration, Beijing allowed 10,000 to 20,000 people to protest Japan’s bid to gain a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council in April 2005. The protests flared not only in Beijing at the Japanese Embassy, but also in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Shanghai. The Chinese government allowed the protests to proceed for a time but intervened after vandalism mounted. When two Japanese students were attacked in Shanghai, Beijing clamped down.
Postponing East China Sea natural gas talks is a mostly symbolic way of showing China’s dissatisfaction that is nevertheless more potent than China’s previous diplomatic complaints. The negotiations were going to be difficult even under the best of circumstances. The most recent round of
East China Sea natural gas talks had not so far produced remarkable or promising results beyond a 2008 agreement, and citizens in both countries are not pleased about their respective government’s handling of the issue. The delay highlights how this incident, if allowed to fester, could cause concrete damage to relations. For example, if a permanent cessation of talks occurred and allowed China to press forward unilaterally on natural gas exploration and development, the dispute would greatly intensify.
In the long run, the tense relationship between East Asia’s giants will persist. Both states are focusing on strengthening their sovereignty claims.
China in particular has been pressing harder on its territorial claims of late, beefing up its defensive posture in the
East China Sea and conducting subsea surveys to get a better understanding of potential natural resources there. The two countries have numerous other disagreements. At the same time, Tokyo and Beijing see benefits from trade and investment and further integration of their economies, and neither state wants to engage in a full military confrontation. It is likely that they will seek to limit just how far the latest incident goes. Even so, the situation bears observation given the potential for misunderstandings that could exacerbate the dispute.
Give us your thoughts
on this report | Read comments on
other reports |
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario