37.A Temporary U.S.-Russian Detente

Thursday, September 16, 2010  STRATFOR.COM  Diary Archives A Temporary U.S.-Russian Detente Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov visited Washington on Wednesday to meet with U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. After a full day of meetings, Gates and Serdyukov signed two documents. The first was a new memorandum on military cooperation between Russia and the United States, replacing the outdated 1993 agreement, and the second was an accord to hold a regular yearly military and defense meeting between both sides. This is the first visit to the Pentagon by a Russian defense minister in more than five years. The five-year hiatus resulted from growing security issues between the two sides, with the United States striking military deals in Central Europe and the former Soviet states, while Russia backed anti-U.S. states like Iran and went to war with American ally Georgia. But the past three months have seen a warming — whether real or rhetorical — between Moscow and Washington, after years of deadlock between the former Cold War foes. In just the past few months, Russia signed on to U.N. sanctions against Iran; Russia and the United States have agreed to increase the transit of American and NATO military supplies to Afghanistan via Russian territory; and the two sides have agreed to launch a series of joint military ventures, including Russian upgrades on NATO members’ equipment in Afghanistan, while the United States will aid in modernizing parts of the Russian military industry. But this sudden shift is not truly indicative of warming U.S.-Russian relations. Instead, the two sides are comfortable in the short term with where each has drawn the line on how far it will pressure the other. Washington has decided to put off challenging Russia until another day. It needs to wrap up all the other issues on its plate before taking on a resurgent Russia. The United States has continued to lay the groundwork for that future standoff, continuing with defense deals in Central Europe. But the United States has ceased interfering in the former Soviet states, such as Georgia and Ukraine, which would force Russia to retaliate against U.S. interests. “This sudden shift is not truly indicative of warming U.S.-Russian relations.” For Russia, it is more complicated than a short-term detente. Within theRussian cycle of resurgence and collapse, Moscow has reached out to the West once it is comfortable in its own security and strength. Russia’s strategy for becoming a strong and secure state requires many steps. First, Russia must lock down its internal system, ruling it with an iron fist. Russia also has to secure its food and energy supplies. Finally, Moscow has to fold the states that serve as a buffer between Russia and the West back into alliances — which it has done by consolidating Ukraine and Belarus, though loose ends like the Baltic states and Moldova still remain. In successfully fulfilling the majority of these criteria, Russia can comfortably move from a strictly Slavophile and insular state to one that can accept some Western ties — within reason. This is because Moscow knows that it is more difficult for Western influence to penetrate Russia while it has the buffer between it and the West. Russia’s small overtures and openings to the West are a way of modernizing the country, keeping it strong and competitive for the future. But there must be a careful balance between keeping the Russian state Slavophile versus opening to the West — should Russia open up too much, Western values could corrode Russia’s internal security and its hold on the buffer. But Russia knows that another standoff with the West could be on the horizon. That is why it is still aggressive in its former Soviet sphere, ensuring that its consolidation is not only long term, but without loose ends. This has left a red line drawn between Moscow and Washington, where Russia has been operating mainly in its own sphere while the United States has mainly operated just outside that sphere. As in the past, this red line has only been temporary and has repeatedly been crossed — but for now the pleasant visits between Russian and U.S. defense officials can go on.