Putin in Valdai
Vladimir Putin's Valdai vision
Sep 7th 2010, 10:06 by The Economist | SOCHI
THE Valdai club is an annual meeting of academics, historians and commentators who have an interest in Russia. Yesterday we met Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. The moods of the participants were very different. Most of the Valdai club members were pessimistic about Russia's future, but a relaxed Mr Putin seemed chipper.
Before meeting Mr Putin, the group had held anguished discussions about where Russia was heading. Even the Russian members were mostly glum, with many saying that the country’s size, climate and history made autocracy and lack of freedom almost inevitable. The economic prognosis was equally downbeat. A survey of opinion among the club’s members, called the Valdai index, came to some harsh conclusions. It suggested that there was a “tendency toward stagnation in Russia.” And it commented that “there is practically no real modernisation, restructuring or diversification, oil and gas remain the main sources of revenue, corruption continues unchecked and there is almost zero innovation.”
Mr Putin largely rejected these views. He said that the government had a clear agenda for modernisation up to 2020. He cited the abolition of import duties on high-technology equipment and spoke of successful diversification into different industries. He talked up the amount of foreign investment into Russia, even though he admitted that most of it was in the energy sector. And he suggested that a revival in the birth rate across Russia was a sign that ordinary Russians did not share the gloomy pessimism of the Valdai club.
The prime minister became most animated, however, when answering questions about the next presidential election, which is due in 2012. He reminded the group that Franklin Roosevelt had been elected American president four times, while so far he had been voted in only twice (in 2000 and 2004). He insisted that he and President Dmitry Medvedev would abide by the constitution, which permits only two consecutive terms at a time. He then added that, as old friends, the two men would decide between them what to do in 2012, promising only that whatever they did “would be effective”.
Mr Putin was dismissive of critics and opponents alike. He said that those who had been taking part in unauthorised street protests across the country deserved to be beaten and claimed that Russian police were no tougher than in other countries. When asked if he would free Mikhail Khodorkovsky—who is serving an eight-year prison sentence for fraud and tax evasion and is currently undergoing a trial in Moscow on separate embezzlement charges—he insisted that the oligarch’s guilt had been proven in court, declared that he was guilty of murder and said that his head of security “had blood on his hands.”
Mr Putin was equally robust on foreign affairs. He spoke warmly of Barack Obama, although he has met him only once. On energy diplomacy he was withering about Nabucco, the Europeans’ planned gas pipeline through Turkey, which is designed to reduce dependence on Russia, saying bluntly that there was no gas to put in it, and suggesting that unlike these pipedreams, Russian promises of pipelines were delivered. Nor, he said, was he worried by the development of shale gas as an alternative source of energy.
The impression created by this year’s interview was of a confident prime minister who does not believe those who argue that Russia needs a lot more reform if it is to succeed. Most of his audience concluded that he is likely to run for president in 2012, and that he may well serve two further terms, which would mean his staying in power until 2024. That conclusion was reinforced by Mr Medvedev's refusal to meet the Valdai club, which he has done in previous years. The club may, however, be seeing Mr Putin for many years to come.
Before meeting Mr Putin, the group had held anguished discussions about where Russia was heading. Even the Russian members were mostly glum, with many saying that the country’s size, climate and history made autocracy and lack of freedom almost inevitable. The economic prognosis was equally downbeat. A survey of opinion among the club’s members, called the Valdai index, came to some harsh conclusions. It suggested that there was a “tendency toward stagnation in Russia.” And it commented that “there is practically no real modernisation, restructuring or diversification, oil and gas remain the main sources of revenue, corruption continues unchecked and there is almost zero innovation.”
Mr Putin largely rejected these views. He said that the government had a clear agenda for modernisation up to 2020. He cited the abolition of import duties on high-technology equipment and spoke of successful diversification into different industries. He talked up the amount of foreign investment into Russia, even though he admitted that most of it was in the energy sector. And he suggested that a revival in the birth rate across Russia was a sign that ordinary Russians did not share the gloomy pessimism of the Valdai club.
The prime minister became most animated, however, when answering questions about the next presidential election, which is due in 2012. He reminded the group that Franklin Roosevelt had been elected American president four times, while so far he had been voted in only twice (in 2000 and 2004). He insisted that he and President Dmitry Medvedev would abide by the constitution, which permits only two consecutive terms at a time. He then added that, as old friends, the two men would decide between them what to do in 2012, promising only that whatever they did “would be effective”.
Mr Putin was dismissive of critics and opponents alike. He said that those who had been taking part in unauthorised street protests across the country deserved to be beaten and claimed that Russian police were no tougher than in other countries. When asked if he would free Mikhail Khodorkovsky—who is serving an eight-year prison sentence for fraud and tax evasion and is currently undergoing a trial in Moscow on separate embezzlement charges—he insisted that the oligarch’s guilt had been proven in court, declared that he was guilty of murder and said that his head of security “had blood on his hands.”
Mr Putin was equally robust on foreign affairs. He spoke warmly of Barack Obama, although he has met him only once. On energy diplomacy he was withering about Nabucco, the Europeans’ planned gas pipeline through Turkey, which is designed to reduce dependence on Russia, saying bluntly that there was no gas to put in it, and suggesting that unlike these pipedreams, Russian promises of pipelines were delivered. Nor, he said, was he worried by the development of shale gas as an alternative source of energy.
The impression created by this year’s interview was of a confident prime minister who does not believe those who argue that Russia needs a lot more reform if it is to succeed. Most of his audience concluded that he is likely to run for president in 2012, and that he may well serve two further terms, which would mean his staying in power until 2024. That conclusion was reinforced by Mr Medvedev's refusal to meet the Valdai club, which he has done in previous years. The club may, however, be seeing Mr Putin for many years to come.
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