53.The First ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus 8

The First ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus 8 October 10, 2010 | 1414 GMT HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the 17th ASEAN Regional Forum on July 23, 2010 Summary Geopolitical uncertainties in Southeast Asia make this year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) Defense Ministers Meeting mainly a U.S.-China show. The most contentious issue in the region — the South China Sea — is not on the agenda, and the meeting is not likely to yield any breakthrough agreements. But inviting “dialogue partners” from the U.S. security alliance as well as Russia and India is a first, and it could give ASEAN states more room to maneuver in balancing their relationships with the United States and China. Analysis The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) first Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus 8 (ADMM+8) will be held Oct. 12 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Defense ministers and delegates from the 10 ASEAN countries that normally hold an annual defense ministers’ conference are expected to attend, along with — for the first time — eight “dialogue partners” from China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Russia and the United States. Although the goal of this meeting is to engage selected partners in resolving both traditional and non-traditional security issues for ASEAN, the conference has taken on greater significance as geopolitical uncertainties emerge in Southeast Asia. The context for ADMM+8 includes increasing military competition and territorial tension among ASEAN states, China’s rising regional influence and, most important, a U.S. plan to re-engage Southeast Asia. This makes the upcoming meeting primarily a front-line venue for the increasingly competitive dialogue between the United States and China. According to Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Defense Nguyen Chi Vinh, the meeting’s “prioritized cooperation areas” are humanitarian aid, disaster relief, maritime security, counterterrorism and peacekeeping operations, as well as the procedural framework for ADMM+8. Nguyen said the most contentious issue for ASEAN states — the South China Sea — will not be included on the official agenda (inclusion had been widely expected in the run-up to the meeting). In late July, at the ASEAN Regional Forum, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it was in the United States’ “national interest” to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. This made the waters, once again, the hottest topic among ASEAN countries and the key area for the U.S. re-engagement push. China, on the other hand, has long asserted that the South China Sea is its territorial waters and, earlier this year, called it a “core interest” equal to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. Thus, it perceives the U.S. re-engagement plan as a move to contain China’s periphery. Given the multitude of interests in the South China Sea and its strategic importance for each ASEAN state in balancing its relationship with China and the United States, the waters could become a core issue that will test those relationships to the fullest. China’s position is firm on two principal points. The first is to firmly oppose the internationalization of the South China Sea, particular third-party intervention; China wants the United States and other non-regional powers to stay out of territorial disputes. The other is China’s insistence that the issue be addressed bilaterally rather than multilaterally, which would prevent other countries from forming a bloc to counter China. With the United States announcing its return to the region, ASEAN countries could find themselves in a better bargaining position in territorial disputes with a more assertive Beijing. Despite its ambitious statements, the United States has taken only a few tentative steps and has yet to make a substantial commitment to push forward on the South China Sea issue. Distracted by other global affairs, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States does not consider Southeast Asia a high priority at the moment. So far, the U.S. posture toward the region has been intended to reassure ASEAN countries that the United States is interested in Southeast Asian affairs. For their part, ASEAN states with deep trade connections to a growing China must not jeopardize ties to their powerful neighbor. A joint declaration from the 2nd U.S.-ASEAN Summit in New York in September did not mention the South China Sea, an intended omission on the part of ASEAN states. Meanwhile, despite the U.S. willingness to help ASEAN countries in territorial disputes and in developing a code of conduct if asked, a STRATFOR source tells us that no country has requested U.S. help. Indeed, ASEAN states could use the growing rivalry between the United States and China to play the two countries off each other and gain considerable economic, political and security benefits, if the effort is well-managed. In such a context, the upcoming ADMM+8 meeting does not promise a significant yield beyond diplomatic rhetoric. Still, contentious issues such as the South China Sea could — and likely will — be raised in informal sessions on the sidelines. And while the U.S.-China dynamic continues to dominate ASEAN-related forums, the idea of inviting other regional players from the U.S. alliance to ADMM+8, such as South Korea, Japan and Australia, as well as Russia and India, could give ASEAN states more room to maneuver. Give us your thoughts  on this report For Publication Not For Publication Read comments on  other reports Reader Comments