Aug 14, 2010
US dips into Mekong politics
By Simon Roughneen
BANGKOK - China's dam-building on the upper reaches of the Mekong River is raising hackles with countries downstream and providing the United States with another strategic theater to counterbalance China's growing influence in Southeast Asia.
Growing controversy on the issue comes at a time when the US has launched a raft of new initiatives in the region, including leading a recent multilateral military training exercise in Cambodia, joint US-Vietnam naval training exercises, discussions with Hanoi on sharing nuclear fuel, and Washington's announcement that it will re-engage with Kopassus, Indonesia's special forces unit.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional forum in Hanoi at the end ofJuly was overshadowed by Sino-American rivalry, with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying that the US was willing to mediate in territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Many Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, believe Beijing increasingly views the contested maritime area as a Chinese lake.
China's Foreign Minister Yang Jichi responded bluntly to Clinton's remarks, saying that they amounted to "an attack on China", before reminding Southeast Asian countries that China is a big country, implying that individually they are small. In response, Cambodia and Vietnam are following countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines in trying to forge new links with the US to counterbalance China's rapid rise.
That strategic hedge is increasingly evident on the Mekong. With four out of China's eight planned dams already built on the Lancang - China's name for the Mekong in its territory - and nine more either in place or awaiting construction on the river's middle and lower reaches in Cambodia and Laos, its unclear how together these will impact on the region. Part of the problem is an uncoordinated approach, which not only means that country decisions are taken on a "national interest first" basis, but also that distrust and enmity are heightened between river stakeholders.
According to Richard Cronin, head of the Southeast Asia program at the Stimson Center in Washington DC, "fragmented decision-making and lack of coordination between stakeholders" means that all sides are going ahead with their own projects without getting to grips with how the separate dams "impact on the river and region as a whole". Cronin was speaking at a seminar organized by the American Studies Program at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
China controls the upper reaches of the river, where most of the hydroelectric potential is situated. Chulalongkorn University's Ukrit Pathmanand said that "non-traditional" security problems could emerge from the building of more dams, with disgruntled people losing fishery income or farmland due to changes in the river potentially leading to social unrest. However, Ukrit added that the benefits of additional hydropower should be weighed against the potential damage that construction causes to the environment and livelihoods.
Political ebb and flow
The dam wrangle is becoming increasingly entwined with regional and global politics. A four-country intergovernmental body known as the Mekong River Commission (MRC) aims to better manage development along the waterway. The grouping, comprised of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam and established in 1995, held its first summit meeting in Hua Hin, Thailand, in April 2010. Notably, China and Myanmar have only accepted observer status in the MRC, despite being two of the six countries through or past which the river winds down to the South China Sea.
Pornlert Lattanan, president of General Electric (Thailand), said that it is unlikely that Cambodia and Laos will raise the Mekong issue with Beijing, which has close relations with both countries. This was seen at the MRC summit, where Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen attributed the low waters in the Mekong region to climate change, rather than to China withholding water behind its Mekong dams.
Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was more circumspect, saying the summit sent a message "that all countries in the Mekong Region, both its upper and lower parts, are stakeholders, and we all have to take joint responsibility for its long-term sustainability". In June, Thai officials went further, with Prasarn Maruekpithak, a representative at an MRC meeting in Vietnam, saying that "China's four dams on the upper part of the Mekong River have already destroyed the river's ecosystem. Now this giant nation plans to build 12 more dams on the lower part."
Vietnam is also concerned about the dams, including those planned for upstream areas in Cambodia and Laos. Le Duc Trung, director general of the Vietnam National Mekong Committee, is reported to have said on June 29: "Vietnam has ... great concerns over the research results on the projects [the proposed dams], especially impacts on agriculture and fisheries likely caused by their dams."
The perceived threat to security and livelihoods is attracting interest from outside Southeast Asia. Japan held a meeting with the Mekong countries in Hanoi on the sidelines of the recent ASEAN Regional Forum to discuss a joint "Green Mekong" initiative for the next decade, which aims to tackle challenges such as natural disasters and deforestation. Japan's Overseas Development Cooperation was listed as a sponsor of the Bangkok seminar on this subject, underscoring Japan's interests in a region where it has substantial trade and investment links.
More pointedly, the US is also getting involved as part of its attempt to counter rising Chinese influence. Secretary of State Clinton recently met with the foreign ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam in Hanoi as part of the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI), which was created in July 2009 as a means to enhance cooperation in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure development.
According to Cronin, the Mekong could soon become Chinese-controlled, with downstream countries dependent on sufficient water being released from dams in Yunnan and Guangxi provinces to keep the river flowing during the dry season. China has denied that its dams are to blame for low water levels on the river earlier this year, with its embassy in Bangkok issuing a statement on March 11 saying that claims to this effect are "baseless and incorrect".
That assessment is partially corroborated by MRC chief executive officer Jeremy Bird, who said low water levels on the river were likely due to the drought in Southeast Asia earlier this year. However, he did not dismiss the possibility that China's dams could be the cause.
Cronin acknowledges that recent US overtures are directly related to geopolitics, but said that it was initially difficult to get the Mekong issue onto the policymaking radar in Washington due to the multiplicity of issues facing Washington in Asia and elsewhere. The danger is that subsuming the complex environmental, political and socio-economic issues at stake on the Mekong into Sino-US great power rivalry may overshadow the practical steps and confidence-building measures needed to effectively address the river's future.
Nonetheless, Cronin believes that overt US interest in the issue might at least prompt China into "listening more to concerns of other stakeholders". That's one interpretation of Beijing's June decision to take Southeast Asian officials on a rare tour of some of the dam sites inside southern China.
However, given rising energy needs of China's growing economy, and perhaps an emerging feeling in Beijing that the US and Southeast Asia are beginning to collaborate to contain its expanding interests, downstream countries may be left wishing for higher-level insights into China's plans.
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